Systems Research and Analysis Archives - KeyLogic

What Would It Take? Pathways to 400 GW of U.S. Nuclear Capacity

Mary Catherine Pauley — Tue, 10 Mar 2026 14:59:08 +0000

The U.S. energy landscape stands at a pivotal crossroads. After two decades of flat electricity demand, a surge in demand driven by artificial intelligence and data centers is reshaping what the grid needs to deliver and how fast it needs to deliver it. A new analysis from KeyLogic’s OnLocation division analyzes what it might take for the U.S. to achieve the Trump Administration’s goal of up to 400 Gigawatts (GW) of nuclear power capacity operating by 2050.

The key finding: it is technically achievable but it will require an unprecedented level of sustained financial commitment, structural reform, and national will.

~100 GW

New SMRs by 2050

~200 GW

Large AP1000 Reactors

15x

Data Center Demand Growth by 2050

The Demand Shock: AI Is Rewriting the Rules

For roughly twenty years, U.S. electricity consumption barely moved. Efficiency gains largely offset population growth and economic expansion. That era is ending. The explosive growth of AI model training and inference, cloud computing, and hyperscale data centers is creating a demand surge with no modern precedent.

According to a previous KeyLogic analysis, electricity consumed by data centers could grow 5 to 10 times above current levels by 2035 and more than 15 times by 2050 in high-growth scenarios. To put that in perspective, data centers could eventually consume almost 40% of today’s electricity demand.

This shift has already triggered a strategic recalculation across government and industry. The question is no longer whether demand will grow dramatically but rather who will supply that power and what technologies will meet the demand.

The Policy Signal: 300 GW by 2050

The Trump Administration has made nuclear power a centerpiece of its energy and national security strategy. Executive Orders signed in 2025 direct federal agencies to accelerate licensing, reinvigorate the industrial base, expand domestic uranium enrichment, and streamline reactor testing at the Department of Energy.

The stated targets are ambitious: facilitate uprates adding 5 GW of capacity at existing plants, begin construction of approximately 10 new large reactors by 2030, and add 300 GW of new nuclear power by 2050. If achieved alongside existing capacity, total U.S. nuclear generation would approach 400 GW; roughly quadrupling the current fleet.

Administration Target

300 GW

New nuclear capacity added by 2050 — requiring construction to exceed any historical pace in U.S. history

Industry Has Already Placed Its Bets

Before federal and state government engagement, the technology sector began making direct bets on nuclear. The KeyLogic report lists at least $20 billion in commitments from major digital companies seeking to secure firm, low-carbon baseload power for their data centers.

Microsoft signed a 20-year power purchase agreement with Constellation Energy to restart the former Three Mile Island site (now the Crane Clean Energy Center). Google struck deals to deploy roughly 500 MW of nuclear capacity by 2035. Amazon Web Services committed $500 million to X-Energy for advanced reactor development. Meta entered agreements with Vistra, TerraPower, and Oklo for both fuel and reactor capacity.

The Trump Administration has also announced a partnership with Brookfield Asset Management and Cameco to construct at least $80 billion in new large-scale reactors through Westinghouse Electric Company.

These commitments signal that nuclear power has become a commercial imperative and a key national & economic security priority going beyond just a policy aspiration.

The Modeling: Two Scenarios, One Hard Truth

KeyLogic’s analysis used a customized version of the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) to evaluate two pathways forward.

The Reference Scenario incorporates updated policies including provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that rapidly phase out wind and solar tax credits, plus high data center demand growth. Under this path, the grid expands dramatically, but solar, wind, and natural gas do the heavy lifting. Nuclear accounts for only 12% of electricity generation by 2050.

The Nuclear Scenario layers in an additional financial incentive: a ‘Nuclear Power Premium’ applied as a supplemental investment tax credit to drive the model toward the Administration’s additional 300 GW target. The results show nuclear reaching 48% of total U.S. electricity generation by 2050, comparable to France’s nuclear share today.

Cumulative Nuclear Capacity Additions Under the Nuclear Scenario

43 GW

By 2035

202 GW

By 2040

323 GW

By 2050

Crucially, achieving this trajectory requires a pace of nuclear construction that exceeds any historical period in U.S. history, including the nuclear buildout of the 1970s. The analysis illustrates that the projected deployment rate is not merely ambitious, it is without precedent in the U.S.

Sustained Industry and Financial Commitment

The analysis also highlights the scale of additional financial support required to bridge the competitiveness gap between nuclear and its technology alternatives. Even with OBBBA tax credits in place, achieving 300 GW of new nuclear capacity would require a supplemental ‘Nuclear Power Premium’ averaging $99 billion per year between 2026 and 2050, expressed in real 2024 dollars.

If the industry achieves more aggressive technology learning, driven by serial construction, manufacturing scale-up, and improved project execution, that figure drops to $69 billion per year. This is not a subsidy in the traditional sense. The premium is a proxy for the total financial support required –from any combination of government grants, loan guarantees, long-term power purchase agreements, and private capital commitments– to make nuclear construction economically viable at the scale required.

What Needs to Go Right

The analysis is straightforward about the conditions that must be met for the nuclear scenario to materialize. These go well beyond financial incentives:

Regulatory reform must succeed. The Executive Orders directing reform of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission are assumed to be successfully implemented — cutting years from licensing timelines and enabling faster permitting for new builds.
The workforce must be rebuilt. Nuclear construction in the U.S. atrophied for decades. Restoring and expanding the skilled workforce needed for simultaneous multi-unit builds is a structural challenge that cannot be solved with money alone.
Supply chains must be established. From specialized steel and reactor pressure vessels to enriched uranium fuel, domestic supply chains for large-scale nuclear construction do not currently exist at the required scale.
Technology learning must accelerate. The model’s more favorable outcomes depend on serial construction — building enough reactors to drive down costs through manufacturing experience, as South Korea and China have done.
Public and community acceptance must hold. The report identifies community acceptance of both data centers and nuclear plants as a priority research area requiring attention at the local and state level.

The report notes that in the Nuclear Scenario, nuclear capacity displaces a significant portion of what would otherwise be wind, solar, and natural gas investment. Total installed capacity is lower in the nuclear scenario because nuclear power’s higher capacity factor and higher availability mean fewer gigawatts are needed to deliver the same amount of energy as intermittent renewables while also meeting peak demand requirements.

The Bottom Line

This analysis does not conclude that 400 GW of U.S. nuclear capacity is impossible but that it is conditionally achievable, under identifiable assumptions.

The analysis makes clear that meeting the Administration’s targets is not primarily a technology problem. The large AP1000 reactor is a proven design. Small modular reactors are approaching commercial deployment. The challenge is industrial, financial, and institutional. Rebuilding the capacity to construct nuclear plants at scale — after a generation of dormancy — is a national undertaking comparable in scope to building the interstate highway system or the original nuclear fleet.

For policymakers, investors, and energy planners, the report offers a sober but constructive message: there is a pathway to achieving industry’s needs and the Administration’s goals, but it will take a historic and sustained level of technological, financial and policy commitment.

This analysis is a first step in evaluating the potential for nuclear power to meet the energy needs of AI & Data Centers in line with the Trump Administration’s goals. Further research is needed and there are many uncertainties to resolve, e.g., the growth of AI, data centers and other electric loads, central vs. on-site power generation, technology costs and performance, and future enabling policies & regulations.

KeyLogic, a subsidiary of System One, is an independent analysis firm that uses quantitative methods to better inform business decisions and policy development at a wide variety of energy sector organizations, including government agencies, non-profit organizations, and energy-related businesses that represent a broad spectrum of interests. Contact us for a free consultation at: Francisco de la Chesnaye / VP, OnLocation, fdelachesnaye@onlocationinc.com

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Shaping the Future of U.S. Natural Gas Exports

Harry McKinney — Wed, 22 Oct 2025 01:18:30 +0000

In an era defined by shifting energy priorities and global market dynamics, understanding the long-term impacts of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports is more important than ever. The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) LNG Export Study & Response to Comments (officially “Energy, Economic, and Environmental Assessment of U.S. LNG Exports”[1]) provides critical insights into how expanded LNG exports influence the domestic energy market, economic output, and environmental outcomes. Due to the complexity of the topic, the analysis required a robust modeling framework that leveraged two existing groups from KeyLogic’s Systems Research & Analysis team. One group was OnLocation, KeyLogic’s premier energy and economic modeling division. As recognized experts in the use of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), we were uniquely positioned to assess the energy and economic implications of LNG exports with accuracy and depth. The second group was KeyLogic’s Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) team which developed the framework for a whole supply chain analysis quantifying the consequences from increasing levels of U.S. LNG exports in terms of changes to domestic and global emissions.

The DOE LNG Study Update: Key Takeaways

DOE’s study evaluates the impacts of LNG exports at higher volume levels than previously studied—up to 48 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d)—in light of global demand scenarios and U.S. market trends. Key conclusions include:

• Macroeconomic Gains: Higher LNG exports continue to contribute positively to U.S. GDP, driven by increased natural gas production and investment.

• Domestic Prices Rise Modestly: While higher exports lead to upward pressure on natural gas prices, the increases are moderate due to the robust resource base and production scalability.

• Energy Security: Increased U.S. LNG exports can strengthen domestic and international global security with no discernable impact to global greenhouse gas emissions.

These findings are not static forecasts, but they depend on a complex web of assumptions, market behaviors, and policy trajectories. Systems Research and Analysis capabilities account for the interplay between these forces and factors to deliver deep insights that create a powerful vision of potential scenarios as the LNG export market continues to grow.

Modeling Methods: OnLocation and the Power Behind NEMS

KeyLogic has the ability to customize the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) for key studies that complement DOE’s long-term energy forecasting. NEMS is a detailed, integrated energy-economic model that simulates the entire U.S. energy market, incorporating:

• Energy production and consumption

• Macroeconomic feedback

• Technology adoption

• Environmental regulations

• International trade

For the LNG study, we enhanced NEMS to account for a broader range of export volumes and global market conditions.

Modeling Complexity: Balancing Global Trade and Domestic Stability

Modeling LNG exports is uniquely challenging. It involves projecting both U.S. supply capacity and uncertain global demand—factors influenced by geopolitics and innovation. OnLocation’s enhanced version of NEMS integrates:

• Global gas market linkages through export demand curves

• Price-sensitive production forecasts that react to both domestic and international signals

• Policy modules that simulate regulatory environments

These additional features allow DOE analysts and policymakers to explore “what if” scenarios that explore a range of market, technology, and policy factors and assess their ripple effects on U.S. consumers and producers.

Life Cycle Perspective: Holistic Policy Analysis

As the LNG export conversation increasingly overlaps with national goals, understanding the life cycle emissions of upstream natural gas and LNG infrastructure becomes essential. The LNG study includes a consequential life cycle analysis led by KeyLogic’s Systems Research & Analysis team, revealing the complex interplay between upstream domestic and foreign methane leakage, liquefaction efficiency, and the ultimate displacement effect of LNG in global markets.

Using frameworks consistent with ISO standards and integrating tools such as GREET, OpenLCA, and custom-built emissions inventories, we help clients evaluate complicated energy pathways. KeyLogic’s expertise in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) could extend this analysis by evaluating:

Emissions impacts across the entire LNG value chain, from wellhead to end-use, for any interested party in the natural gas industry.
How regional variations (e.g., Permian vs. Marcellus) affect emissions profiles.
How reported emissions by facilities in the LNG value chain (e.g., wells or processing locations) compare to emerging top-down data that identify geo-located methane plumes.
The comparison of LNG vs. alternative fuels in different importing countries.
The role of methane monitoring and abatement in improving the relative carbon performance and efficiency of U.S. gas exports as markets like Europe require these activities.

Outcome: Informing Policy with Rigor and Transparency

By marrying DOE’s policy mandate with KeyLogic’s technical expertise and our unique modeling capabilities, the LNG Study Update offers not just results, but a transparent, reproducible framework for decision-making. This is especially crucial as the U.S. government considers future LNG export approvals that advance economic and national security interests.

As global energy systems evolve, the need for robust, scenario-based analysis becomes even more urgent. KeyLogic’s contributions ensure that U.S. energy policy is grounded in data and driven by systems thinking that capture the complexity of the global energy ecosystem.

[1] www.energy.gov/articles/doe-finalizes-2024-lng-export-study-paving-way-stronger-american-energy-exports

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Multi-Model Analysis Offers Insights for Emerging Low-Carbon Fuel Pathways

Harry McKinney — Thu, 18 Sep 2025 14:51:04 +0000

KeyLogic provided analytical support to GTI Energy’s Reliable Affordable Infrastructure for Secure Energy (RAISE) initiative by identifying prime opportunities to leverage natural gas infrastructure for emissions reduction and economic growth. Our analysis mapped the technology pathways, total costs, and life-cycle emissions of emerging low-carbon fuels—hydrogen, renewable natural gas, and synthetic natural gas—with projections extending to 2050. KeyLogic applied its extensive in-house capabilities in techno-economic, life cycle, and scenario analysis – utilizing a custom version of Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) called OL-NEMS, to conduct a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis for integrating these emerging fuels.

The first of five regional studies, completed in August 2025, focused on the Gulf Coast Region (encompassing New Mexico, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, as delineated by the Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts, PADD).

The results of this study are available at:

Executive Summary: Highlights the key findings of the study
Technical Summary: Condensed version of case study approach, findings, conclusions, and recommendations
Case Study: Full report outlining emerging fuel pathway inputs and assumptions, approach, key assessments, considerations, findings, and takeaways
Appendices: Additional background information, calculation details, and methodologies

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Unlocking Insight and Innovation: Systems Research & Analysis Powered by KeyLogic

Harry McKinney — Thu, 17 Jul 2025 19:21:02 +0000

In today’s high-paced, data-driven world, organizational success hinges on the ability to transform information into insight—and insight into action. KeyLogic’s Systems Research & Analysis (SR&A) solutions empower decision-makers with the clarity and confidence needed to navigate modern, complex challenges and achieve measurable impact.

What Is Systems Research & Analysis?

Systems Research & Analysis (SR&A) is the disciplined process of collecting, analyzing, and interpreting data to inform operational and strategic decisions. It combines quantitative analytics with qualitative insight, enabling organizations to:

Identify trends and anticipate future developments

Understand market dynamics and customer behavior

Evaluate policy impacts and operational performance

Optimize resource allocation and risk management

At KeyLogic, SR&A is not just a service offering—it is a mindset. We integrate cutting-edge analytical tools with deep domain expertise across the energy sector. Our collaborative approach delivers the business intelligence required to drive successful outcomes.

The KeyLogic Advantage

KeyLogic stands apart in the SR&A space for several reasons:

1. Mission-Focused Expertise

With decades of experience supporting federal agencies, national labs, NGOs, and innovative companies, KeyLogic brings insight into mission-critical environments. Whether it’s energy policy, cybersecurity, data centers and grid resiliency, LNG and natural gas, critical minerals, or advanced techno-economic analysis, our analysts speak the language of the mission.

2. Data-Driven Decision Support

KeyLogic leverages advanced data science, machine learning, and visualization platforms to extract actionable insights from vast and complex datasets. But technology is only part of the equation—our practice utilizes advanced tools and techniques to efficiently collect, prepare and structure data for modeling and analysis, delivering high-fidelity, actionable insights.

3. Agile, Collaborative Approach

No two challenges are the same. That is why KeyLogic customizes its SR&A methods to meet the needs of each client. We work closely with our clients to align goals, define success, and iterate optimal solutions faster and more effectively.

Real-World Impact

Our Systems Research & Analysis solutions have informed decision-making across many critical sectors:

Energy and Environment: Supporting the public and private sectors in the navigation of complex topics such as integrated energy systems, data center energy demand, global LNG trade, and emerging energy technologies.

Security and Critical Infrastructure: Providing intelligence and strategic assessments to support mission planning and resource allocation on issues such as critical materials, cyber security, and grid reliability.

Science and Technology: Helping agencies and corporations prioritize investments, benchmark performance, and identify emerging opportunities for research and development of advanced energy technologies.

Our expertise and long-term track record have made us trusted advisors to public and private sector clients. We hold DOE’s Strategic Analysis contract and support the National Energy Technology Lab’s (NETL’s) Strategic Systems Analysis and Engineering Directorate. Our expertise has allowed us to support the development and extend key modeling platforms, such as the award winning IDAES (Integrated Design, Engineering, and Analysis Suite) toolset and NEMS (National Energy Modeling System). With these advanced tool capabilities, KeyLogic further extends its unique ability to address complex challenges such as assessing energy supply and demand scenarios, evaluating critical mineral recovery processes, providing produced water management guidance, quantifying methane emissions and mitigation, and recommending improvements to grid reliability, among many. Combining tools with deep domain expertise helps our public and private sector clients inform policy, make investments, and guide operational decisions.

Looking Ahead

As global challenges become more interconnected and stakes grow higher, the need for intelligent, responsive SR&A has never been greater. At KeyLogic, we are committed to advancing this discipline through continuous innovation, deep partnerships, and a relentless focus on results and outcomes.

Whether you are navigating change, optimizing strategy, or scaling product or process—Systems Research & Analysis from KeyLogic is your catalyst for smarter decisions and differentiated results.

Recent Activities

Market Optimization and Technoeconomic Analysis of Hydrogen-Electricity Co-production Systems, Energy & Environmental Science 17, 9509-9525, 2024. (Paper Link)

A Mixed Integer Linear Programming Approach for the Design of Chemical Process Families, Computers & Chemical Engineering, 183:108620,2024. (Paper Link)

Data Center Demands & Impacts on the Energy System: An Energy Horizons Special Report, OnLocation Whitepaper, September, 2024 (Data Center Whitepaper)

US Energy Horizons to 2050, OnLocation Whitepaper, July, 2024 (US Energy Horizons Whitepaper)

Energy, Economic, and Environmental Assessment of U.S. LNG Exports, December, 2024 (LNG Report)

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Data Visualization for the USAF

Harry McKinney — Sun, 12 Sep 2021 16:10:02 +0000

In two weeks, KeyLogic created an interactive Big Data dashboard for the USAF that displays when satellites can see ships at sea. The exercise was to take raw satellite and vessel location data and discover when each satellite could see each ship (“hits”). As part of this exercise, we were also asked to find any “holes” in the data that would cause a loss of fidelity. We exceeded the requirements of the challenge by not just listing more than 10 billion “hits” and filling many “holes” by analytic extrapolation but by mapping ship tracks and building this visualization dashboard.

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Deep Experience in Large Scale Data Management

Harry McKinney — Tue, 07 Sep 2021 17:31:56 +0000

KeyLogic leaders have served on the US National Academy of Sciences Board of Research Data and Information and have been the Secretary General of CODATA (Committee on Data) under the International Science Council. We have supported two US White House Interagency Working Groups in Informatics and Digital Data. KeyLogic data policy experts pay particular attention to data confidentiality (e.g., PII and HPII), data rights, and data security.

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Data Science for an Improved Carbon-Capture Process

Harry McKinney — Tue, 07 Sep 2021 16:51:29 +0000

KeyLogic develops process simulation flowsheets and applies data science tools, such as uncertainty quantification, design of experiments, and ML, to help design better carbon-capture processes. Our work reduces the time and cost to maximize learning from experiments in pilot plants. In addition, we support the modeling and analysis of low viscosity, water-lean solvents with polarity swing regeneration that are anticipated to have favorable CO2 capture costs. Our expertise in applying uncertainty quantification to identify critical solvent data gaps for solvent-based CO2 capture systems, will reduce the time and cost to develop advanced materials for carbon capture.

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Optimization of Physical Plants and Chemical Processes

Harry McKinney — Tue, 07 Sep 2021 15:39:02 +0000

KeyLogic supports the optimization of our national energy infrastructure through advanced machine and deep learning models.

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Carbon Capture Simulation for Industry Impact

Harry McKinney — Wed, 01 Sep 2021 19:22:00 +0000

KeyLogic data scientists and subject matter experts support the analysis and optimization of carbon capture technologies. We work with national laboratories, industry, and academic institutions to apply cutting-edge computational modeling and simulation tools to accelerate the commercialization of carbon capture technologies from discovery to development, demonstration, and ultimately the widespread deployment to hundreds of power plants.

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IRS Application of KeyDetect

Harry McKinney — Thu, 26 Aug 2021 20:30:46 +0000

KeyLogic helped IRS staff members move from performing one-by-one analyses of individual database records to letting advanced data-mining tools do much of the work. As part of the Offshore Compliance Initiative, the agency’s investigators provided the forensic expertise, while our experienced professionals developed algorithms to automate and accelerate lead identification.

Results

Increased Mission Effectiveness. Our work helped the agency collect more than $10 Billion in taxable income that was being illegally sheltered in tax-haven countries — and identify more than $90 Billion in additional liabilities.

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